Among all MCU movies, there are few that have had more production problems than Blade. Announced way back in July 2019, Mahershala Ali made a surprise appearance with Kevin Feige at San Diego Comic-Con to announce a new Blade film. Nearly five years later, the movie has gone through two directors, with the first, Bassam Tariq, first departing back in September 2022, and now Yann Demange on June 11th.

Throughout all of this production turmoil, how has the first appearance of Blade in Tomb of Dracula #10 fared in the market?

For our deep dive, let's take a closer look at the most common grade on the CGC Census for Tomb of Dracula #10: an 8.5. There are a total of 4,656 CGC blue labels on the Census and roughly 10% of them received 8.5s (467). After reaching an all-time high of $3,999 for an 8.5 back in July 2022, this book has been in a free fall. Today, according to GoCollect, the FMV of an 8.5 is $1,800 and the 30 day average is a mere $1,541. The most recent 8.5 sold for $1,325 during an auction hosted by eBay (but a few weeks before that, another 8.5 sold for $1,900).

While a decline from $3,999 to its current FMV of $1,800 may make this book look like a falling knife, if you look at this book before the Blade film announcement (and before the pandemic-fueled "comic boom of 2020 and 2021), this book's value has nearly doubled (an 8.5 sold for just over $1,000 in June 2019). In other words, if you omit the market anomaly caused by the pandemic, this book has actually been a really good investment over the long-term.

While the value of an 8.5 has dropped dramatically during the past two years, the supply of 8.5s has more than doubled during that period of time.

It may be easy to attribute the decline in value of an 8.5 to production issues related to the film; however, the more important factor may be the dramatic increase in supply of graded copies of Tomb of Dracula #10 during the past two years. Specifically, back in early July 2019, before the film announcement, there were a total of 1,965 CGC graded blue label copies of Tomb of Dracula #10. There were 261 8.5s and the average grade of a blue label was 7.81.

Nearly five years later, there are now 4,656 CGC graded blue label copies on the CGC Census. That is almost a 2.5x increase in the number blue labels. There are also now 467 8.5s on the Census (almost twice as many) and the average grade dropped to a 6.94.

An 8.5 has risen dramatically in value over the past five years in spite of a dramatic increase in supply.

Now consider this. Back in June 2019, just before the film announcement, an 8.5 sold for around $1,000. At that time, there was a supply of 261 8.5s on the Census. Today, the FMV of an 8.5 today is $1,800 and yet there is a much LARGER supply of 8.5s on the Census (467). Higher market value in spite of greater supply? You could actually argue that this book is quite hot over the long term in spite of what has happened during the past two years.

Does the history of Tomb of Dracula #10 over the past five years make you think twice as to whether the comic book market is currently in a "bear market"? Perhaps other key issues that have looked like "falling knives" over the past few years have also followed a similar pattern? Please let us know what your opinion is in the comments section below!