GoCollect's Collectible Price Index (CPI) provides comic book investors with the ability to analyze a key issue across multiple CGC grades in one data visualization. Using this tool, you can quickly get a 30,000 foot view of the value of a particular issue much like you'd see for a market summary of a specific stock. This tool can be particularly helpful, in my opinion, if you're looking to buy key issues on the dip.
One such book is Fantastic Four #48 (March 1966) which, of course, includes the first appearance of the Silver Surfer and the first cameo appearance of the World-Eater, Galactus. It's included in the Silver Age CPI. It's the first issue in a popular three-issue arc generally called The Galactus Trilogy.
Is it a buy at current price points? Let's take a closer look.
Across 13 CGC grades, Fantastic Four #48 has lost about 16% of its value over the past 12 months and 72% of its value since the "comic boom."
If you view the CPI using the one-year view, you can see that Fantastic Four #48 has lost about 16% of its value over the past year across 13 CGC grades. A year ago, this issue contributed 24 points to the overall Silver Age Index, but today it contributes only about 20 points.
But Fantastic Four #48 isn't unusual in this regard; in fact, the majority of Marvel key issues that are included in the Silver Age CPI have lost a lot of value over the past 12 months. They've been stuck in a long-running bear market following the "comic boom" that occurred in 2020-21. The sales that occurred back in 2020-21 were unsustainable and it's understandable that the market would correct itself over time. If you take a closer look at the most common grade of Fantastic Four #48 on the CGC Census (a 4.5 with 812 universal blue labels), a 4.5 reached an all-time high sale of $3,249 in May 2021. Today, the FMV of a 4.5 is merely $925.
In other words, this issue has lost a staggering 72% of its value in just over three years! You can also see that it continues to lose value in recent months since it's 30-day average of $927 is less than its 90-day average of $958. And it's 90-day average is considerably less than its one-year average of $1,033.
Some data suggests Fantastic Four #48 may have over-corrected.
I don't think there's a collector out there who doesn't think the market needed a major correction after the comic boom. That event was definitely a market bubble; the prices were being driven way above their inherent value by speculation and unrealistic valuations. And that bubble popped leading to big losses for collectors who invested then.
Could Fantastic Four #48 continue to drop further? Nobody knows for certain, and no one enjoys catching a falling knife, but I think there are good reasons to believe that it's near, if not at, the bottom. First, this major key has lost about 9% of its value over a five-year period; it generally sells for less than it did immediately prior to the comic boom. To me, that suggests over-correction since 2019 was a "normal" market unaffected by pandemic-related stimulus.
Macroeconomic factors may provide tailwinds to Fantastic Four #48.
Lastly, there are some macro and micro economic factors that are likely to provide tailwinds to Fantastic Four #48. First, the S&P500 and the stock market have been soaring this year breaking record after record. The Federal Reserve seems to have achieved a "soft landing" by bringing down inflation to acceptable levels without having triggered a recession. The Reserve has also began cutting interest rates meaning that everyday Americans will have more money to spend on things like comic books. And finally, the MCU will finally introduce its own version of the Fantastic Four in 2025 with speculation that Galactus and the Silver Surfer will appear. It appears at least to me the environment is ripe for this book's value to begin turning the corner.
