In our continuing search for a market bottom, there is emerging data that suggests we may be close or at the bottom now and just don't know it yet. While the major comic book indices managed by GoCollect still don't show clear evidence of a bottom, there are some leading indicators that suggest that the long-running bear market could be near its end.
For instance, let's take a deep dive into the data for one of the most important Bronze Age keys: Giant-Size X-Men #1. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but I think we have enough data to look back and make the case that Giant-Size X-Men #1 hit bottom back in early 2024.
Let's look more closely at the historical sales data for a CGC 9.8. Back in late 2019 and in early 2020, just prior to the pandemic, a 9.8 typically sold in the $11,000 to $14,000 range. At that time, there were only 170 9.8s on the CGC Census. With the injection of a trillion+ dollars into the U.S. economy during the pandemic, comic book values soared in 2021 with a 9.8 reaching an all-time high sale of $72,000 on June 19, 2021. There was also a grading boom during this period; this is important because, by the end of 2022, there were 219 9.8s on the Census, a significant increase in the supply of 9.8s potentially available for sale. (Today, there are 257 9.8s on the Census).
Not surprisingly, prices began to immediately correct after this all-time high sale. Exactly a year later, another 9.8 sold on Heritage Auctions for $48,000 or roughly 33% less than the June 2021 sale. In late 2023, a 9.8 sold for just $22,750 on Goldin Auctions and, two months after that, another 9.8 sold in January 2024 for $22,200 on Heritage. As Swagglehaus often says, there can only be one bottom and these two buyers just happened to time the market perfectly.
Looking back, this turned out to be the bottom.
With six additional sales since then, I think the argument can be that the January 2024 sale was the market bottom for a 9.8. Since that sale, six other 9.8s have sold and every single one of them sold for well over $30,000 and one sold for nearly $40,000 in October 2024. The one that sold for under that amount was off-white to white pages.
While it's entirely possible that a 9.8 could sell again for $22,000, such a sale would have to be considered an outlier; sales have been consistently 50% higher than that amount for nearly 18 months. Notably, the 30-day average is identical to the 90 and one-year sales average for a 9.8.
With the huge success of X-Men '97 and the full introduction of the X-Men into the MCU in the upcoming Avengers: Doomsday, there may be some catalysts in the near future that may help to boost this the value of this book.
