Reviews for ‘X-Men: Dark Phoenix’ are in and [oh my!] I thought they would be bad (see Phoenix Down and Up), but they’re worse than I predicted.
What will this development do for your well-known X-Men ‘Phoenix’ keys?
X-Men #101 (October 1976) – First appearance of Phoenix; Phoenix origin concludes
I noted back in February the strange situation that, with the imminent release of an ‘X-Men’ film titled ‘Dark Phoenix’ on the way, the first appearance of the Phoenix (X-Men #101) was softening and prices were trending downwards. At that time, 9.8 graded copies had a FMV of $5, 000.00, but showed negative returns of -15.9%. 9.6 showed negative returns of -1.2% and 9.2 copies were returning negative -3.2% figures. Fast forward three months and what do the numbers look like?
Sales have slightly rebounded on the highest grades, with the negative numbers mostly reversing and returns have somewhat picked up.
The situation right now is as follows: 9.8 are currently up with positive +3.1% returns after two sales [Heritage Auction, 04/28/2019 = $4,320.00; eBay, 05/01/2019 = $4, 455.00], however the FMV is now only $4, 800.00. 9.6 grades are up, after 17 sales, at positive +4.2%. The high point: a 03/17/2019 eBay auction that ended at $1, 825.00. The low point: a 03/29/2019 sale on eBay for $1, 042.00. After 12 sales 9.4 grades are down negative -12.8%, with the last sale at 05/20/2019 going for $886.54.
My take on the original decline three months ago was the following:
“Let’s assume that, at best, the ‘Dark Phoenix’ movie will be decent but will probably, indeed, be a bad film (for reasons I’ve explained before, that can be summarized here as simply: I’m skeptical any single film can do justice to this story arc). Nonetheless, this still does not mean that these X-Men keys are doomed to lapse in value for a very long time. A bad FOX film may, on the contrary, be a blessing in disguise to those who want to own the Phoenix keys.”
It looks like some like-minded people saw the dip and decided to buy, but they acted pre-maturely. The consequence is that, while the value has been pushed up, it hasn't risen enough to keep an upward momentum going. At the same time, perhaps in anticipation of the film, CGC submissions increased from a 3, 613 total of copies in February of 2019 to 3,989 today. This might have been a result of hoping the upcoming film would be decent, so all that is not to say that a box office bomb won’t act to reverse the recent gains.
X-Men #134 (June 1980)- Phoenix becomes Dark Phoenix
Let’s turn to the ‘Dark Phoenix’ key of keys: X-Men #134. This comic was doing better than issue 101 three months ago. At the time, there were 1,718 copies on the CGC census. Even though it had a FMV of $875.00, in certified 9.8 grade, it was nonetheless up in roi in all higher grades [9.8 up at +23.4%, 9.4 = up +8.1%, 9.2 = up +18.3%]. Fast forward three months: today the data looks as follows:
Current CGC total submission numbers = 1,938
Current Fair Market Value in 9.8 grade = $950.00
Number of Sales of 9.8 copies over the last three months = 12
Returns on 9.8 copies over the last three months = negative -12.5%
The highest sale on a 9.8 was on 05/06/2019 on eBay and that sold for $895.00. The low end over the last twelve weeks was on 05/22/2019 also on eBay which sold for a mere $600.00. This will eventually drag the FMV way down.
9.6 returns are also slightly down (negative -3.2% after 12 sales). Looking at other grades, 9.4, which was up three months ago by +8.1% is now positive only +6.5% after 13 sales and has a current FMV of $375.00. And 9.2 is up +8.8% after 14 sales, with the last recorded sale on 06/02/2019 selling for $179.99, giving 9.2 copies a current FMV of $180.00.
The bad reviews are a strong indicator that this movie may either break-even or perhaps bomb. Most likely that will lead to increased sales of these comics and for lower prices. My advice: now is a good time to pick up some X-Men keys.
The Phoenix books are currently in a funk in the same way as the Justice League of America comics were after the badly received movie a few years ago. Those have picked up again in value (they’re classics). I have no doubt that the X-Men comics will likewise eventually pick up again, especially after Marvel introduces them in the MCU. If the FOX ‘Dark Phoenix’ movie is as bad as the reviews suggest, most people’s instincts will be to sell. I would say, if you have the money and find the right deal - buy now and hold.
