It has now been five years since the COVID pandemic first swept across the globe. Its effects on comic values were immense and we’re still dealing with the aftermath. Using our Collectible Price Indexes, let’s take a broad look at how COVID changed the back issue comic market and what’s happened since.
What Was Happening Pre-COVID
Before we can understand the COVID boom in back issue comic values, we first have to figure out what was happening prior to March 2020. Looking at the three back issue eras most effected by COVID – the Silver, Bronze, and Copper Ages – and what was happening in the market for those issues from 2015 to 2020 will help to illuminate what’s happened since.
From March 15, 2015 to March 15, 2020, the Silver Age index saw a 71% rise in value, averaging out to roughly a 14% increase per year. That beats the Dow Jones Industrial average in three out of the five years.
We see a similar rise in the Bronze Age index, with a gain of 73%. Again, this tops the Dow Jones Industrial average in three out of the five years.
While the Copper Age index saw a steady gain across the five years, it was a little more anemic, with an increase of just 42%, or an average gain of roughly 8% per year. This wasn’t enough to keep pace with the Dow Jones Industrial average in three out of the five years and only topped it when the Dow dropped into negative territory.
Overall, we saw steady gains in all three indexes from 2015 to 2020, and two out of the three indexes showed very good, if not exceptional, growth.
The COVID Boom
In March 2020, the COVID pandemic hit. While initially the comic indexes saw a marginal drop in value, soon the combination of liquidity caused by government spending and the boredom caused by stay-at-home mandates precipitated a boom in many collectibles, comic books included.
The Silver Age index peaked at 2,102 on September 11, 2022, and showed a 74% gain in two-and-a-half years, double the rate of gain from 2015-2020. Besides the well-known books, formerly somewhat obscure issues benefited from the combination of the boom and MCU speculation.
The boom in Bronze Age comics was slightly shorter lived, with a peak in the Bronze Age index of 1,495 reached on June 19, 2022. However, the gain was appreciably higher than the Silver Age: 137% in 27 months. While the issues climbed in value under the same auspices as the Silver Age, many of the books started with a lower base price, making them more attractive to speculative investors.
No index saw better performance over a shorter period of time than the Copper Age index. It climbed 168% from March 15, 2020 to July 4, 2021 and reached a peak of 1,409. Many issues that had been completely ignored by collectors suddenly came into vogue for the same reasons as the Silver and Bronze Age books rose in value, with the added impetus of nostalgia by investors who fondly recollected Copper Age comics they read as kids and suddenly had money to burn.
The Post-COVID Bust
Then came the bust. The boom was not sustainable for a variety of reasons, including over-speculation and the drop in production values for MCU movies and TV shows. Many collectors who purchased as the boom neared its apex quickly became disenchanted by the slowing of gains and sold their books. The inevitable glut in supply and lack of demand as inflation took hold and interest rates began to rise precipitated what, in retrospect, was an inevitable decline. The stone rolling downhill quickly gained momentum and the result is a market that appears to be in free fall.
From peak to present, the Silver Age index has lost 18.5% in value. Many of the books that had gained the most in value have since dropped near or below COVID boom prices.
Since reaching its peak in June 2022, the Bronze Age index has dropped 24.7%. Much of this loss has been seen in the top-end books in the index and due in large part to MCU malaise.
The bust has been toughest on the Copper Age index. It has lost 38.5% of its value since peaking in July 2021. A great deal of over-speculation occurred on many books in this index and the comics were highly overvalued as a result. The correction has brought these issues down to more realistic values
Long-Term Implications
While the decline in comic values hasn’t stopped, it has slowed over the past six months. It’s hard to tell when we’ll reach the bottom of the trough, as that will largely depend on factors within the back issue comics market as well as macroeconomic forces, there will reach a point where values will begin to rise once more. In all likelihood, though, we may never again see a boom like the COVID boom.
Viewing the pre-boom to bust recent past with a wider lens, however, shows a healthy market over a 10-year timespan. The Silver Age has gained 71% in value since 2015, in keeping with the rise between 2015 and 2020, although gains since 2020 have been at a lower if still decent 42%. The Bronze Age index has shown a phenomenal 209% gain since 2015. The slowing of declines in value over the past six months are a sign that some of the higher values for Bronze Age comics may be here to stay, even if they aren’t as valuable as their boom peaks. The Copper Age has seen a gain of 134% since 2015. While not as large a gain as the Bronze Age, there is likely some staying power in many of the formerly cheap books in the index.
There is much pessimism in the comics market as one would expect during a time of decline. However, even with the bust we’re experiencing now, looking at the market over a ten-year period shows a healthy market. The questions at this point are when will the bleeding stop, what kind of growth rate could we see in the future, and will future gains be in line with past gains over a 10-year timespan?
