After roughly two years of declining values across the collectibles market, we've recently some evidence that the good times may have returned. Take, for instance, the recent sale of an Action Comics #1 for $6M -- the highest sale ever for a comic book -- on Heritage Auctions.

On April 19, Goldin will auction a 2003-04 Upper Deck Michael Jordan Ultimate Collection Ultimate Logos Signature PSA 10 card. It's a 1 of 1. The sale of this card will serve as a barometer of the sports card market. Will this Jordan Logoman card become the most expensive basketball card ever sold?

Back in March 2021, The Athletic published an article entitled Big money, big risk and Andre the Giant: Welcome to the sports card boom. “There will be pockets of people getting burned. Some will lose a lot of money. Some will make money if they cash out prudently,” List said.

Well, just over three years later, we can affirm that bubble did indeed pop. For instance, take a look at this list of the most expensive basketball cards of all-time. All of them sold during the peak pandemic years of 2021-22. The three most expensive cards ever sold are all Logoman cards: (1) a 2009-10 Panini National Treasures Stephen Curry Logoman Autographed Rookie Card which sold in July 2021 (private sale); (2) a 2003-04 Upper Deck Exquisite Collection LeBron James Rookie Patch Autograph AU/23 #78 which sold in April 2021 (sold by PWCC); and (3) 2018-19 Panini National Treasures Luka Dončić Logoman Autograph Rookie Card #127 which sold in February 2021 (private sale).

There are two important commonalities among these three cards. First, all three are Logoman cards. Second, and probably most importantly in terms of their sales values, all three sold during 2021 at the height of the sports card boom. (You'd think at these prices, all three would be 1 of 1s, but actually the Lebron card is 1 of 23).

When you compare the Jordan Logoman card to the other cards on this list, it could be argued that it's the most desirable. As great as Steph Curry and Lebron James are, I think most collectors see Michael as the GOAT (although, obviously, some will debate that). The Upper Deck Jordan Logoman card is certainly more rare than the Lebron card as well since it's a 1 of 1.

The Jordan Logoman card is more comparable to the Lebron Triple Logoman card that sold in mid-2022.

The most important factor right now in terms of asset pricing is the state of the market. The Curry, James, and Dončić cards sold at the height of the pandemic. If Goldin were to sell this card in 2021, it might have sold for more than $6M; however, in 2024, the collectibles market in general had experienced a significant correction.

We first saw evidence of this correction in mid-2022 when the Lebron James Triple Logoman 1 of 1 card sold for "only" $2.4M on Goldin. Prior to its sale, and based on some of the sales that occurred in 2021, many wondered if this card would become the most expensive basketball card of all time. And yet, it didn't even sell for half as much as the Lebron card sold in 2021 which was a 1 of 23.

The Lebron Triple Logoman card that sold in 2022 is probably the best comparable we have to the Jordan Logoman card even though that sale occurred nearly two years ago.

To answer the question that I posed at the beginning of this blog, I highly doubt that the Jordan Logoman card will become the most expensive basketball card of all-time. While it's extremely difficult to price an asset that is so rare that only one exists, I predict that that this card will sell in the $1.25 to $1.75M range. When the Lebron Triple Logoman card sold two years ago, we were still in the middle of a correction.

Still, one important x-factor today that could affect the final sale is the state of the stock market today. The S&P500 has set multiple records in 2024. As Ken Goldin said two years ago, "[i]t’s a lot easier to sell a $500,000 card when the S&P is at 4,000 instead of at 3,000.” The S&P500 is now over 5,000.

How much do you think the Jordan Logoman card will sell for? Let us know what your opinion is in the comments section below!