Did you see Fantastic Four: First Steps on the opening week? You then are like many others who drove up the initial showing numbers only to have it's box office plummet in week two. This is not a good sign for a movie that was being proclaimed the next big thing for Marvel. The film is not a critical or financial failure yet, but it is a disappointment. The problem is that past successes have shifted the goal posts. In the past, a comic book film was a success if it made an average profit. Disney now expects box offices to match or better previous MCU films. Every new film is supposed to produce a home run. Failure is not an option. That thinking has led the Mouse to change and for comic fans this is not for the better.
Printing Money
The first cracks in the wall for the future of the MCU were not Marvels, Ant-Man and Wasp: Quantumania, or even the She-Hulk fiasco. Even the best strike-out once in a while. The problem is that the Fantastic Four film was supposed to fix problems that the studio believed was holding them back. An interconnected universe viewers needed to understand to process new films...gone! Unfamiliar characters originally appearing on tv then on film...gone! Pathetic villains who were mediocre at best...gone! This was their attempt to reboot the MCU and it has not connected. The film has resonated with comic book fans, but we are a captive lot. In elections, victories are not won by appealing to a dedicated base, but instead by those independents who can be swayed. That is where the money is going to be made.
The MCU made comic book heroes cool. Fans who never touched a comic before came in droves. They HAD to see the next part of the universe. Heroes like Dr. Strange were cheered even though a vast majority never even knew his comic history. Casual movie goers bought merchandise to dress for the next installment. Some even visited the local comic book store to get those unique items they had to have. Times were great until they were not. Mega threats like Galactus were now squandered as plot devices when other choices were on the bench. Then things got even worst.
Wrestling for Dominance
Warning signs were again present but comic collectors are an optimistic lot. Fantastic Four: First Steps was going to be a hit even though merchants such as Walmart, Target and others did not carry apparel and merchandise that once filled the store before a movie's release. Comic collectors see the problems but believed that the battle will be won in the end. The FF would be the dawn of a new era for the MCU. All that was needed was time because RDJ would come in and save the day. In contrast, investors and retailers are more cautious. Money is at risk. Fantastic Four: First Steps may be a success but it is not an Endgame level game changer. Disney could not count on the Marvel division to back up the money truck anymore. Steps had to be taken and they were not good for comic book fans. August 6, 2025 could be known as Black Wednesday for the MCU.
DaDaDa DaDaDa
In order to understand and evaluate the comic book market's health sometimes one has to expand their horizons. Disney owns several companies besides Marvel. While Marvel was up ESPN was down and the business community thought ESPN would be sold by Disney to better allow them to focus on their Disney and Marvel properties. Then we got the August 6 curveball. ESPN made a few monumental deals that impacts the MCU. First it was announced ESPN is launching a new streaming service. Then ESPN made a $1.6 BILLION deal with the WWE to stream their content. This deal was only the start of the spending spree because the Mouse decided to punch up from even the WWE. Their next target was the big dog on the block. ESPN gave up 10% equity to NFL for the rights to the NFL Network and Redzone Channel along with another non-binding deal to produce NFL content. Disney is making deals and spending capital to produce content, but there are only so many pieces of the pie to go around.
Hands Tied
People believed Kevin Feige could do no wrong when it came to the MCU until things went south. In a recent interview he indicated that there was going to be a decrease in production for the MCU. Quality over quantity. Not all projects would be greenlit. He also was going to review ways to make films cheaper. That meant losing some key actors. Most telling was he revealed that he only had around two years on his contract. That does not bode well for Feige's future visions. Two years is a blink in time when it comes to the production of a film.
These recent ESPN deals probably already impacted the MCU even before they were announced. Word must have come down that costs had to be cut to make the films more profitable. Phases had to be pruned to make them more viewer friendly. Too many branches that fans had to understand had them checking out of the Marvel Universe. End credit teasers would never come to fruition. Feige has a chance to succeed but he has to evolve to the changing battlefield before him. He is now not only competing with Superman, but CM Punk, Cody Rhodes, Roman Reigns, Seth Rollins and the NFL Network for money. Feige has to be smart and so do collectors and investors.
Moneyball
The book and film Moneyball told the story of MLBs evolution in understanding stats. Basic players could produce desired results at a much better rate at fractions of the expense star players could. Superstar may be good to have but games were won with everyday ball players producing more than their peers. The old ways of winning championships could not always work for everyone. New ways had to be tried to level the field. Those that kept trying to produce results with old blueprints and not even looking at the new ways would die out like the dinosaurs. Feige was given an option and....
Galactus to Bunt
Instead of redirecting his attention to characters and stories that are not as epic to save money he is looking to make the special effects less costly. He is still trying to use the old ways to create movie magic. The problem is The Thunderbolts are not interchangeable with the Avengers simply because they are a group of heroes. Fans loved the originals not because of the grandiose battles but rather the character's stories were compelling. Robert Downey Jr. was not a guaranteed success. Hemsworth and Evans were not well known. Small ball was working. Stories mattered. Then Avengers: Endgame happened and Feige's eyes lit up. Marvel movies were paying off. Major villains were soon wasted. Big name stars were hired. It did not work. Fans wanted good storytelling, not epics with more cost effective special effects.
Wins over Replacement Choices
Most collectors and investors reading this, not you Elon Musk, do not have the resources to spend unilaterally on any books they want. Targeted approaches have to be made now. Characters matter. Collectors and investors must review stats to see what characters and books offer potential to produce both in stories and dollars. Not all have to be home run hitters. Four singles is still good. Here are a few important issues people should focus on to get some good deals. Each offers great potential for future storytelling.
The first appearance of Jonah Hex is a major key. Still this book is dropping in price for middle grades. A 9.2 CGC copy had one sale in the year for $1499 and yet the FMV is currently at $1050. Right now reviewing the census numbers indicates less that 875 copies. The reason for the fall in price was not because of rarity, but rather because no films. Fans wanted a homerun and Jonah's first appearance was not viewed as desirable without a new film. That still could happen, but beyond the potential for a film this book is too important to have such a low price for a 9.2. Hex has appeared on television and comics for decades so this book deserves to be an add for collectors and investors alike.
The reason this book was listed was because it is the first appearance of Quicksilver as Max Mercury. Not as well known as the Flash, he is the speedster whose image was featured on the mural in the most recent Superman film. A very small entry price for a hero who could be a major player in the new film universe. Comic fans know this character is not fast enough to enter the Speed Force but keeps jumping into different eras as a result of his attempts to enter it. This is a good power to have in a multiple movie universe set in different time periods. GoCollect has no data on this book because not a single issue has been graded. Most can add this book for pennies so it is worth the risk. Max has potential. National Comics #5 is also a nice target because this was his first appearance as Quicksilver plus the book has Lou Fine art, but with only 30 copies out there, good luck.
Love him or hate him, Guy Gardner is important to the DC Universe. Still for such an important book less than 2000 total copies are graded. What is more surprising is that a 9.4. has an FMV of $1800 and an FMV of $525 for a 7.5 copy. Some grades have dropped for their 1 year average around the time of Superman's release but other grades have gone up. Wait a bit and prices will start to settle again, but for how long? Gardner is a key GL and this book is a perfect example of keeping it small with a safe outlet. Do not be shocked if this book does spike if his importance is finally noticed by more than Green Lantern fans. Guy has untapped potential.
Another small swing but with a major character. The first appearance of Detective Crispus Allen is a key that many collectors and investors fail to realize happened in this issue. That is a big mistake because he becomes the Spectre, a being of great power. Characters like this do not grow everywhere (Galactus we hardly knew you!!!). What is more important is that the character has had appearances in the TV show Gotham, and Snyder's Justice League. He is the Spectre for the new generation. This issue has an FMV of $48 for a 9.8 with less than 50 copies in the entire CGC census. Most of that FMV is from the grading fees. A better bet, but with a higher price tag is the Infinite Crisis #4 Jim Lee Variant with Krypto on the cover. It is the issue where Crispus is bonded with the Spectre entity. A 9.8 still only has a FMV of $48 even with the Lee cover. The Corrigan version first appearance...forget about it!
Scarecrow's first Silver Age appearance is one of the few major Batman villains that fans can truly afford. An 8.5 CGC copy has an FMV of $975 while a 6.5 FMV is $450. A major benefit for this character is that his toxins could be so far reaching in both future comic and movie storylines. That is a problem that many in society can understand and fear right now. A major threat that does not need so much special effects could lead to profitability even if the Dark Knight is not the opponent. He truly is a planetary threat that could appear in numerous films focusing on many heroes. Even with appearances in previous Batman films, Scarecrow still has a great track record with so much untapped potential. The price is right to take a sniff on this character.
Blade is in limbo, but the idea of a monster hunter in the MCU has so much potential. The television movie Werewolf by Night only touched upon this part of the universe. The horror genre in film is very profitable right now. Much of the television show was in the dark thus saving costs with very few special effects. Marvel Presents #1 has the first appearance of Ulysses Bloodstone who was featured in the coffin in that episode. His immortality and strength were gained from alien technology of the Bloodstone lodged in his chest. Ulysses' daughter Elsa Bloodstone was also featured in that episode. She ultimately won control of the Bloodstone. Ulysses first appearance has an FMV of $190 for a 9.8 copy. Elsa's first appearance in Bloodstone #1 has an FMV of $270 for the same grade. Both are bargains for characters with great potential even if the MCU may have squandered some of it through non-use. And no, that is not a garter belt on the cover of Bloodstone #1...It is a bridge, people!!!!
Power Girl first appearance right here. On the power level of Supergirl, this first appearance is not targeted to the degree one would assume. A little above 3000 copies exist in the CGC census but a 9.6 has only an FMV of $550. Fans again do want this book but there is a good supply to match demand right now. In addition, this book also has that identifiable Mike Grell cover. His work is severely underappreciated by collectors and investors. Current artists are using this character for some great covers so one would assume this would translate to a higher FMV but that has not been the case. Mention important Bronze Age books and this one rarely gets mentioned in the numbers it should for this key. One day it will rise but right now fans can only dream of this Power Girl's first appearance being within their sweaty reach.
The first appearance of Havok in costume. A 9.4 currently has an FMV of $1400 and yet the one year average is a little over $1000. A 9.2 has a 30 day average of $725 while its FMV still sits at $900. The numbers are dropping for this X-Men key and they should not be. One of the the best storyline drivers is family angst. The Summers can deliver there but you need a few of them including....
Family drama usually starts at the top and sometimes father does not know best. This book has the first cameo of the space pirates the Starjammers, led by Corsair. He is the father of Cyclops, Havok and Vulcan. A 9.8 will set you back only $1200 based upon the 90 day average and FMV of $1250. This issue also features Magneto. Guardians of the Galaxy succeeded because of the emotions between the crew. Many collectors could relate to the family dynamics among the Summer's clan and also the Starjammers. This book is important but is never given the attention it deserves. If they appear in a film you may have missed a great chance but even without a movie this book has great potential.
Lessons Learned?
Marvel still has a chance to pull off a revamping of the MCU. Gunn is raising the bar with Superman. Comic fans should enjoy those films but also see them for what they are, entertainment. How many people overpaid for Strange Tales #169 merely because a passing line in a film? Others "knew" Miles was coming after his uncle hinted of his future involvement and overpaid for his first appearance. Fans were looking for epic success with home runs when good opportunities existed with quality comic keys. These books still could pay off big time if they appeared in film but not overpaying for keys is a wise strategy for collectors and investors alike. There are bargains. If prices start to skyrocket though get off the ride by not overpaying for a "star". Remember a single is still a hit.
"You can observe a lot just by watching"
Yogi Berra
