In the summer of 2021, a live action movie adaptation of Akira will be released by Warner Bros. Pictures. Akira is set in the post-apocalyptic world of Neo-Tokyo with a cyberpunk aesthetic. The plot centers around a young gang leader named Kaneda and his telekinetic friend Tetsuo as they evade the clutches of the military and government.
Here we will examine the market behavior of Akira’s first US publication by Epic Comics Group (an imprint of Marvel Comics). Furthermore, we'll evaluate whether the book is suitable for a speculation strategy.
The very original 1st appearance of Akira was serialized in a weekly anthology magazine called “Weekly Young Magazine,” published by Kodansha from 1982-1990. Unfortunately this magazine is exceedingly rare; but fortunately, we can turn to the translated US release of Akira #1, which is CGC graded and has a large enough volume of sales for analysis.
Below is the sales data for Akira #1, graded in CGC 9.8 which represents 42.3% of the top census:
Since 2013, the value for the book was on slow but steady increase. Then suddenly, in early 2019 it shot up. As with most other comic book “speculation,” the value jump can be solely attributed to the announcement of the movie. Taika Waititi, of Thor 3 fame, was officially confirmed as the film’s director and a summer 2021 release date was set.
To gain greater insight into the market behavior of this book, we’ll examine it in two parts; before and after the movie news. Below is the sales data before the news:
The overall fair market value for the book rose over the preceding years at an average of 14%. With it consistently occurring over the course of seven years, the modest growth is nothing to scoff at. Slow and steady wins the race. Interestingly, despite the increased in overall value, the selling price range for the book also grew. Within the same month, it was possible to find sales with a 200% difference. This was advantageous for anyone who was vigilant and acquired the book at the lower end of the range; because again, the book’s value is on a consistent rise.
And then the announcement.
Below we have the sales data surrounding the news:
Suddenly, sales prices almost doubled. One book even went for $699.99. The price may decline in the near term; but with most comic book movies, it’s highly likely to slowly climb as protagonist casting and other production news gets released. The one $699.99 sale is likely an outlier; if you’re looking to open a position it’s better to examine to price range prior to the news, closer to $200.
Even though 9.8 represents a large 42.3% of the census, we can still look at the book in 9.6 which is 73.2% of the census. Below is the sales data:
The market behavior for the book in a CGC 9.6 also experienced the same slow and steady growth as 9.8. A big difference however is that it didn’t benefit from the same price bump that 9.8 experienced from the movie news, but the volume of sales drastically increased. A 9.6 could be a cheaper way to get your hands on the book as a collector, but it appears most of the investment speculation is occurring in the 9.8 grade.
COMPARISON
For insight into how Akira #1 might perform in the future, we can look to a directly comparable book Ghost in the Shell #1 (1995). Both movies are Warner Bros. Pictures properties; and furthermore, both books’ original 1st appearance was actually in a Japanese magazine. Below is the sales data for Ghost In the Shell in CGC 9.8, which represents 38.1% of the top census.
Can you spot when the movie released?
In the months immediately following the movie’s release, the fair market value for the book plummeted. For anyone that opened a position at $400, unfortunately it’s going to be a long time until the price naturally returns to that price. The prospects for a movie sequel or reboot also seem slim as the first movie underperformed at the box office.
THE BOTTOM LINE
- AKIRA #1 (CGC 9.8) – Cautious Buy. Then sell around Q2 2021.
- GHOST IN THE SHELL #1 (CGC 9.8) – Sell
The irony of the situation is that the book had reliable growth and lower risk before the movie news. If you’re looking to speculate on Akira #1 now, try to get in at a lower end of its volatile range. It could potentially get more price bumps as more movie news gets released such as casting and trailers; the expected time-frame for these would be the next few months. Most importantly, in the months prior (emphasis on PRIOR) to the movie’s release: Sell. Sell. Sell.
If you don’t already own the book and don’t want to pay the inflated prices, the next best opportunity will be a few months after the movie’s release. Looking at what happened to Ghost in the Shell, the value could rapidly fall over 250% from its highs.
"My job isn't to believe or disbelieve. It is to act or not act!" - Colonel Shikishima
