We all know the curse of a bad movie on investment comics, and not even Star Wars is immune to this stigma. That's why it's about to be a buyer's market for Star Wars #1.
Call it Star Wars fatigue. Call it over saturating the market. You can call it whatever you like, but the fact remains: Star Wars isn't as profitable as it once was.
It's been well publicized in the mainstream media that Solo: A Star Wars Story was a disaster. In June, various news outlets were reporting that Solo was expected to lose upwards of $50 million. A Star Wars movie losing money? Up until Solo, that was unthinkable, but it makes sense. First, Disney gave us The Last Jedi, which was profitable at the box office, but it left a bad taste in the mouths of longtime Star Wars fans. Then there came the whispers of Solo's production problems (changing directors twice, Alden Ehrenreich needing an acting coach midway through filming), and fans were wondering if this would be as bad as Last Jedi.
The negative reception of Solo has been so bad that the rumor is Disney has put all its Star Wars spin off ideas on hiatus until after they see whether or not Episode IX can pull the franchise out of its slump. This slump isn't just the movies, either; it's also affecting the fair market value of 1977's Star Wars #1 that just a year ago seemed untouchable.
In terms of sales volume, SW #1 is still a behemoth. Month after month, it's one of - if not THE - most-traded bronze age comics on the market. For the month of August, 790 graded copies of SW #1 sold on eBay. The closest comic to that number was Amazing Spider-Man #129, which sold 759 times. These numbers tell you that the comic is still popular, make no mistake about it, but where I'm seeing cause for concern is in the FMV.
The 12-month average for SW #1 has a lot of falling numbers. From the mid-grade 5.0 and upward, every grade of the standard 30-cent cover has experienced a drop in FMV since last September compared to the average sale prices of 2017. In some cases, such as the 9.2, it's a minimal decline. In other cases, it's more pronounced. Take the 9.8 near-mint grade, for example. In 2016, it averaged $1,121 over 57 sales then dropped a little to $1,056 last year. But in the past 12 months, it's fallen to $955. What's worse is that its 90-day average has dwindled to $924. Back in 2015, out of 80 sales, only two of those were for less than $1,000 and one went for as much as $3,165. The decline is real, my friends.
This is just the beginning. Over the next year, I expect Star Wars #1 to continue to drop, so I recommend you stay away from buying this one. However, this is Star Wars we're talking about, and one epic movie will right this ship. My advice is to sit back and watch the prices fall, then pick up a high-grade copy in the next few months when the FMV bottoms out. That way when Disney gets the Star Wars hype machine rolling again, you'll be set to make a nice profit.
