This Key is Lifting the Entire Modern Age CPI

Would not touch a copy of Invincible #1 right now, unless it was given to me gratis. Pure speculative insanity going on now.

The use of comic price indices to apprise the relative prices of comics is becoming a "thing"...

This is the first time I've reveals that the gocollect indices are weighted by "market cap".

So, it takes recent sales prices realized at various grades, and then multiply those prices by the census counts in those grades, and then that result becomes part of the index.

I think this weighting aspect could create a lot of unreliability.... Since the census counts are always increasing for Modern comics... weighting will tend to shift the index result to reflect more and more, those books within the index whose census counts are increasing by the most. This is bad - because when a book gets hot, people tend to rush to get many more of them graded... when a book's goes up... so will its census count, which will make the index go up faster too because that book is getting a heavier weighting.

Which will also make the Modern index's results be very different than, say the Golden index (since so few golden age books are still getting graded, and since so few golden age books get "hot" (there's never going to be a mad rush to get a Det 27 graded) the Golden age census grows very slowly and consistently across all the book in that index).

I'd love to really dig into this subject! I think the results (or at least the conclusions being reached by those who comment on the meaningfulness of the month to month changes in one index vs. another) are questionable.

Another thing.... I think if one were to extrapolate the entire index's value... it would become apparent that comic prices aren't at all like the stock prices or stock indices. Just look at the Invincibles... is it rational to assume that three long boxes of Invincible #1 (about 1,000 comics - all of the 9.2's through 9.8's) are really "worth" $1.8M? Are there 1,000 collectors (who don't have one) who'd pay $1,800 each to get one?

Comic "Values" aren't really values... They're just most-recently-paid prices. I don't think there's even a twentieth as many people that would be needed to absorb those 1,000 copies at an average of $1800 a copy.

I think the use of the word "value" is inaccurate when it comes to collectibles. Unlike stocks - which throw off dividends (or retain earnings) comics, like all collectibles, only have a value that someone will pay for them, at that moment in time... and there's a very small number of people who don't have a copy who want one, who have the money or desire to pay the recent price paid.

What do you think?

• Just hopping in here to clarify that GoCollect's CPIs have actually NOT (yet) been weighted by anything.
  That appears to be a bit of a misunderstanding in this post, that I imagine we'll edit to correct.
  
  However, there is the consideration that the current calculation does cause books that sell for higher dollar values to have more "weight" in the index. Meaning swings in value for Invincible #1 will have more of a pull on the index value than some other books that sell for less, which would then have smaller variations.
  
  That could suggest that maybe we actually should include some kind of weighting to try to balance it a bit more. For more info, I'd encourage you to check out this post that actually describes the calculation, and there was also some discussion in comments there that are related to weighting: https://gocollect.com/blog/introducing-the-gocollect-collectible-price-index

As there are still up to 4 seasons left of Invincible and with talks of spin offs and MAYBE a movie with real people in it who knows what might happen value wise? I can't say anything about it really as I'm biased (I own 5 copies paid a whopping 7$ canadian for all 5) other than I'm REALLY happy they are as valuable right now !! Tomorrow? Who knows?

One thing for sure soooo many people said Walking Dead 1 would go down hard and be almost worthless once the main serie would be over....didn't happen. Print run helped it for sure and it's now a classic as Tomb Of Dracula 1 and 10 are. Or EC Comics (Even if they are in a class by themselves). What I can say is that if you REALLY want a book buy it and if you aren't comfortable with the price you might have to pay for it...don't !!! Comics must bring you joy and if all you think about is the money you MIGHT make with it well at least buy/invest in something YOU like.

First off Invincible isn't a spec book. Spec books are much cheaper with the thought that they are going to go up in value in the in the immediate future, or buy the book now and hold for a period of time. I have done that a lot and its paid off. I searched a long time ago for Invincible #1 and got several of these books thrown in for free when I purchased a more expensive book from a store. I knew back then that these books have low print runs and that I should pick up the early issues as many as I can. I learned this from my days buying early valiant books with their print runs not nearly as low as these image books. Think TMNT #1 1st printing. I knew I had to get one because of the low print run. In the early days Everyone said that this book would fizzle out. It had cartoons and toys etc. For me it was a spec book. I took a chance and boy I am glad I did. Hunting one down was a huge task. Getting back to invincible #1, I am sure we will see invincible toys coming out if not already. I think there are some leggo invincible figures. I'm not a toy guy so not sure but I bet they are a low production and I might even pick them up. Economics 101, Supply and demand. Low print run and lets face it this has been going up in value for some time. When this book started to become speculative it was around 20 plus issues into the series and it got that look because of what Kirkman was doing with the Walking Dead. Issue one is now enjoying the fruits of it labor with the show and additional seasons. It has a mass following and a mass appeal. It has a superman feel to it, a space appeal sort of a marvel approach (early marvel with teenage issues that relate to today) its not just another super hero book. Lets get past that one right now. The reason I wouldn't buy is because I have 3 copies. I don't need another. This book will go up and down for the forseeable future as the majority of any collectible would. But don't expect to ever see this book getting super affordable. If you have a budget stick to it and wait for the right moment to purchase and that is usually right after the season is over, but don't wait too long as this could be the book that could get away with all of the additional seasons and the possibility of a live action movie. You can call this a spec book if you think this books value will increase significantly enough that you could walk away with a nice profit. I am not ready to sell mine as I am a collector who enjoys collecting and also feels this book has room to grow. By the way I did sell the majority of my early Valiant comic books I speculated/hoarded on and used that money for a down payment on a townhome. Not too shabby but it was risky. I wished I picked up more of Invincible 1 to 20. These are all on fire among others. Remember buy low sell high.

Only worth buying if you have the dosh spare.....Then if long term goes up substantially then a possible grab investment....People thought Walking Dead 1 and key story issues had had their day but seem to still be heading upwards.....Regarding Invincible 1 the Image Firsts 2010 reprint 1 think in full is still very very cheap....I wonder if the print run was very high?....One to grab?....

I own a 9.8 cgc signed series with kirkmans signature. In my personal opinion, Invincible will become one of the biggest successes of all time from the tv series on its own. The live action movies are no longer a myth. It's in production. If they can portray the live action movies as good as the animated series and not woke it up any further then it's a clear winner. We will most likely end up with invincible video games in the future as well. My goal is to one day own all 144 issues in a 9.8. Not an easy feat considering the low graded comic counts of this series. For a modern comic, it does not have enough graded to meet supply and demand. That's why you are seeing the price go up. Very low pop on basically every issue.

Update: As of May 29, the 30-day average of a 9.8 is now $4,999 up $275 is just one month's time.