After the news hit that a Shang-Chi film was on Marvel’s radar, there were huge price spikes on his debut comic: Marvel Special Edition #15. Having Marvel Studios fast-forward a new project starring a previously unused character will do that. Now that time has passed, and sales prices have already spiked significantly, there should be a lull after which, with the premiere of a trailer or teaser footage, we should then – if past experience is any guide- see a bump.
While Marvel’s green lighting a Shang-Chi film in the first place was not exactly a sure thing, at this point it seems certain that what led to it was the impact Marvel films are making on the Chinese market. China is really starting to pay off for Marvel Studios. In fact, outside of the US, the last two Marvel films ‘Captain Marvel’ and ‘Avengers: Endgame’, really performed well in China.
‘Captain Marvel’ flew to a $86,376,752 opening weekend, and ‘Avengers: Endgame’ outdid even that with a stunning $191,034,859 opening weekend and a $331 million five day haul. To put this in perspective, if we look at the 10 biggest openings ever for movies in China, (see here), we see that multiple Marvel Studios releases are on that list, with 'Avengers' on top.
The take away: Marvel has a captive audience and the potential for significant profit-making in the Middle Kingdom. With those facts in view, the rush to introduce a Chinese Marvel super-hero becomes much less mysterious. Given the dearth of Chinese super-heroes it was only logical that Shang-Chi got the call.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the impact the Marvel announcement, made around five months ago, had on Marvel Special Edition #15. When the news broke in early December 2018 that Marvel wanted a Shang-Chi movie, as expected, people started scooping up his debut.
CGC submission data confirms that the announcement had an strong effect on submissions. If we look at CGC stats (see here), on December 4th, 2018, at the time news broke, there were 1, 253 slabs recorded. This was up from 984 as listed a year earlier – on December 6th, 2017. That averages out to about a submission rate of 269 slabs over the year for an average of 22 books a month submitted. Since the announcement, as of May 7, 2019, the CGC stats for Universal blue label certified copies of MSE #15 stand at 1, 426. An increase of 173 in just 5 months! A volume of submissions increasing by that much is a fairly strong signal that people are grading this book in hopes that they can sell a copy.
And sales data are doing nothing to discourage submissions. Currently, given the absence of news, there is a actually a slight lull and softening of prices.
The three month data on sales looks as follows:
9.8 show a slight dip at negative -7.1% after 4 sales [02/19/2019 = $3, 500.00 (eBay); 02/28/2019 = $3, 500.00 (Comic Link Auction); 03/04/2019 = $2,500.00 (Comic Link) and 04/06/2019 = $4, 000.00 (eBay)].
9.6 is up positive +30.8% after 10 sales [High sale on 03/23/2019 = $1, 999.95 (eBay) and low on 03/19/2019 = $1,000.00 (eBay)].
9.4 is up positive +33.3% after 14 sales [High sale on 04/29/2019 for $1, 200.00 (eBay) and low sale on 03/04/2019 = $567.00 (Comic Link)].
But to put this in perspective, in June of 2018, a 9.8 grade had only broken the $2, 000.00 mark for the first time, while it currently has a FMV of $3, 400.00. We also see 9.6’s selling for around $2000.00 with ups and downs and, therefore, showing a current FMV of $1, 450.00. 9.4's have a FMV of $825.00 and even they are selling for well over $1, 000.00.
What can we expect in the coming months? Wait for the Shang-Chi trailer to drop and prices should spike with the now rare $1000.00+ for a 9.4 and $2,000.00+ for a certified 9.6 becoming par for the course. In other words, barring some truly strange anomalies, Shang-Chi should see a Kung Fu bump. How high will MSE #15 kick? Your guess is as good as mine.
