We're in a new bull market.
As you may have heard in the news, the stock market has officially entered a new bull market. The "official" definition of a bull market is a market that has gained 20 percent from its last bottom. Applying that definition to today's stock market, the S&P 500 has risen more than 20 percent from its last bottom, which occurred on October 12, 2022.
Inflation is receding, the Federal Reserve has taken a pause on raising interest rates, and the unemployment rate remains at record lows in spite of high interest rates. Apparently, Wall Street now thinks it's possible the Fed may achieve its "soft landing" after all. If inflation continues to drop substantially, the Fed might even start to reduce rates in late 2023 or early 2024 — and the stock market might keep rising.
And the stock market hasn't even reached the all-time high it achieved in late 2021. To be classified as a bear market, stocks would have to have fallen 20 percent, at least. That means that a bull market would need a gain of at least 25 percent to wipe out bear market losses. So there's still room for the markets to run.
Will the bull market fuel a similar rise in the comic book market?
Similarly, the comic book market reached its all-time high in late 2021, then substantially cooled off throughout 2022, and it appears halfway through 2023 that the market has stabilized. But unlike the stock market which has been on a tear since March, we haven't seen a similar rise in values in comic books. Will the stock market's run serve as a predictor of things to come for comic book investors?
Unless you're watching Swagglehaus's "Comic Book Index" videos, it's not as easy to determine the overall trends of the comic book market. We can only look quickly at individual books. Let's take a look at a few blue chip Marvel Silver Age key issues -- comparable in prestige to some of the blue chip stocks you might find in the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500.
Avengers, example!
Just like many stock investors who will always invest in SPY no matter what the state of the stock market is, Avengers #1 is always in demand no matter how the comic market is doing.
Just prior to the pandemic-fueled "comic boom" of 2021, a CGC 3.0 copy of Avengers #1 -- the most common grade on the CGC Census -- sold in the $2,000 to $2,500 range. During the comic boom, this same book generally sold for around $5,000. Then, like the rest of the market, this book began sliding, reaching a low of $2,657 on March 15th of this year.
Recently, we have seen evidence that $2,657 may have been the floor for this book. Since that low sale, five 3.0s have sold for at least $3,000 with one copy selling for $3,500 just a few weeks ago on June 10th.
Now may be the time to buy that grail you've always wanted.
Did we reach the bottom a few months ago? Only time will tell, but it makes sense that we did. The stock market is up big and people now have more capital to spend on their "wants" like comic books.
If we did reach the bottom of the comic market a few months ago, it could also mean this is the best time to invest in that grail you've always wanted. Of course, do your own research. And this is just my opinion, but I think the bull market will predict a rise in comic book values in the near future.
What do you think? Do you think we hit bottom a few months ago? Is it a good time to buy that grail you've had your eyes on?
*Any perceived investment advice is that of the freelance blogger and does not represent advice on behalf of GoCollect.
