The writing in Alan Moore's comic book Watchmen #1 is thoughtful, prophetic, and a slice of the cold war all rolled into one. It impressed me as a detective story but the tone is somber warning humanity of overstepping. This comic is the source material for an extraordinary movie based on the comic. The Watchmen movie directed by Zack Snyder in 2009 is an elegant movie about superheroes. Also, for folks that grew up during the cold war Snyder's take on an alternate America is politically surreal and a great mix of genre. He creates a world where we won Vietnam and allowed Nixon to dominate the presidency. Now there is news of a new TV show centered on Watchmen.
David Lindelof and HBO have created a new show that should premiere later this year titled Watchmen. According to Wikipedia, "Lindelof posted a five-page open letter to fans of the comic book series wherein he revealed that the upcoming television series would not be a direct adaptation of the source material or a sequel to it either, but instead would depict a new, original story." Watch out Alan Moore devotees; this is either going to be plain bad or just magnificently awful. There is no improving on Zack Snyder's masterpiece. From a speculative standpoint, it doesn't really matter, the hype will pay off either way. Does the comic book Watchmen #1 provide a clue to its profitability?
The comic book series created by Alan Moore (writer) and Dave Gibbons (pencils) in 1986 was way ahead of its time. It drops the reader into an alternate universe in the United States. It is replete with drama, heroes, villains, intrigue, and conjures up the zeitgeist of the Cold War to perfection. Watchmen #1 is the first appearance of Rorschach, Adrian Veidt, Doctor Manhattan, Daniel Dreiberg, and Edward Blake (The Comedian, so evil it is scary).
Long-Term Returns:
- Grade 9.8 $625 returns positive +42.7%
- Grade 9.6 $160 returns positive +29.6
- Grade 9.2 $70 returns positive +30%
- Grade 8.5 $40 returns positive +9%
- Grade 6.5 $24 returns positive +122.2%
This was a very popular series back in the day and most collectors then purchased two copies: a readable copy and a collectible copy. This Modern Age book is ranked #46 on GoCollect. Unfortunately, it was heavily produced, but the good news is CGC Census only has 2742 outstanding. This modern issue has strong long-term results in near mint minus (9.2) returning +30% upside. With long-term results this positive; it is only fair to look for a possible weakness in the short-term to ferret out the truth of this speculation.
Short-Term Returns (60-days):
- Grade 9.8 $625 returns negative -3%
- Grade 9.6 $160 returns positive +3.5%
- Grade 9.2 $70 returns positive +13.8%
- Grade 9.0 $55 returns negative -33.3%
With these kinds of mixed results in the short-term, Watchmen #1 is still a cheap date. At this level try to buy in the 9.6-grade. It is not easy to spend $160 on a comic. So just compare it to your grocery bill; each of us probably spends about $200 per month on that alone. The gist is most of the money is probably for snack foods which offer no return on investment. The issue has decent long-term returns and once the HBO hype brigade hits; then these books should take part in the Watchmen #1 chum feed. Timing is key on this book, be sure to watch GoCollect and sell at the zenith into the TV show. Remember your goal is to throw the chum, not to be the chum.
