Without retreading too much of the usual market behavior surrounding movie based speculation typically centered around character reveals, trailers, and the theatrical release… it’s almost like clockwork until that clock breaks down.
What happens when that final stretch is prolonged? Not just prolonged, but worse, an indefinite delay. For the Black Widow solo film, the theatrical release date has changed multiple times; from Nov 2019 to May 2020 (probably a bunch of dates in-between) and at the moment to Nov 2020.
Here we will examine the effects of this unique scenario on the key first appearance books of two characters directly related to the movie, Taskmaster and the Red Guardian.
Market Data for Avengers #196
Below is the market data for Avengers #196, graded CGC 9.6 which represents the top 25.5% of the CGC census. Yes, the book contains the first full appearance of Taskmaster (aka Tony Masters) and not his first cameo appearance, which occurred one issue earlier in Avengers #195. Between the two, it is Avengers #196 that the market has embraced. And let’s face it, the cover is substantially better.
From 2012 to early 2019, Avengers #196 had experienced slow and steady growth. Roughly working out to around +9% annually. Not bad. Then in early 2019, you will notice a sudden and huge spike in sales prices (as high as 2x), which coincides with set photos that revealed the first hints of the villain’s presence in the movie.
There is good news and bad news for the Avengers #196 market since early 2019. The bad news is that the higher end of the sales price range has been on a steady decline; reaching levels as low as where it would have otherwise naturally grown absent of the Black Widow movie’s effects. The good news is that the lower end of the range has held steady, and for anyone who wanted the book before the movie spiked the prices… prices are reaching levels as low as where it would have otherwise naturally grown absent of the Black Widow movie’s effects. Two sides to that coin.
Overall, Avengers #196 appears to be a good long-term investment. Just try to enter at a price closer to its normal levels and avoid the movie fervor. To that end, the indefinite delay of the Black Widow movie has allowed for just that.
Taking a Look at Avengers #43
Moving forward, we also examine Avengers #43, the first appearance of the Red Guardian (aka Alexi Alanovich Shostakov). Quick side note, Alexi takes on the Ronin identity as the leader of the Dark Ocean Society in Widowmaker #1 (2011). Back to the book of interest Avengers #43, due to the lower volume of sales, we look at the market data for a wider range of CGC grades: 9.2/9.0/7.0, which represents the top 15.8/25.6/62.5% of the CGC census.
The difference with the book above is that Avengers #43’s big spike occurs a few months later in mid-2019, coinciding with the SDCC reveal of the Red Guardian’s inclusion. Although again the volume of sales is much lower in comparison to Avengers #196, Avengers #43’s sales prices since 2019 are behaving similarly. The higher end of the range is in decline while the lower end of the range is flat.
OVERALL
In the last year, neither Avengers #196 nor Avengers #43 has returned to the highs seen when each of the characters were first confirmed to be in the Black Widow movie. This has been through trailer after trailer. Even worse, their sales prices have consolidated lower over time. The only possible positive event on the horizon is a short term spike around the movie’s release.
The big question here is how big that spike can be versus how much longer the movie will be delayed. There is a scenario where the bottom end of the sales range breaks down, and the final movie release spike is smaller than a short term speculator might have hoped for. On the upside, as the movie is delayed later, an investor looking at the long-term could find prices reverting back to pre-movie influence levels. Between the two books, Avengers #196 is the better long-term investment; hopefully when the movie stuff is over, it can settle back into the slow and steady +9% growth (rate is for CGC 9.6).
“I wanted to fight you, 'cause... I thought if I remembered your moves, I might remember you.” - Taskmaster
