There’s a new king atop GoCollect’s Bronze Age CPI, and it’s not the guy with the claws – it’s a muck monster. How did this happen?
The Swamp Thing’s New Crown
Incredible Hulk #181 has been the key of keys for Bronze Age collectors for decades. Featuring the first appearance of Wolverine, a character who ranks as one of the most popular and most important superheroes of all time, it’s been the go-to Bronze Age book for as long as most collectors can remember. But not anymore. It’s been replaced at the top of our Bronze Age CPI by House of Secrets #92.
As you can see, House of Secrets #92 has a current index value of 121.33 besting the index value of 119 for Incredible Hulk #181. Looking at the past year, Wolverine’s first appearance peaked on April 6 with an index value of 134.1 and it’s been nosediving since. Swamp Thing’s first appearance, on the other hand, hit a low in the index of 119.3 on November 10, 2024. It has been a slow and steady – if unspectacular – climb since.
A Tale of Two Curves
This appears to be less a case of skyrocketing value for House of Secrets #92 and more one of plummeting value for Incredible Hulk #181. Digging a little deeper, most of the damage to Wolverine’s first appearance is due to sales in the high grades. At its peak on April 6, the average 9.8 value in our index was $69,555. It has since dropped to $62,700, and the most recent sale in the September 13 Heritage auction was for $54,000. In the 9.6 grade, value in the index has dropped from $18,222.50 to $15,978.50.
In the case of House of Secrets #92, however, there have been no sales in the 9.8 or 9.6 grades and just one sale in the 9.4 grade that raised the average value from $13,575 to its present $14,400 valuation. In grades below 9.4, there has been some slight change in value in either direction – more grades upward than downward – with a few that have stayed relatively flat. Keep in mind, however, that the overall index value for Swamp Thing’s first appearance has only risen 1.7% since hitting its low point in November of last year.
Supply and Demand
Incredible Hulk #181 hit its overall Bronze Age CPI peak on May 1, 2022 with an index value of 202.9. On that same date, House of Secrets #92 had an index value of 92.6. That would have only placed it third on our index at that time, with Giant-Size X-Men #1, owning a then index value of 126.95. As you can see from the above chart, the downward trends for Giant-Size X-Men #1 and Incredible Hulk #181 look eerily similar. So, why are two Bronze Age keys dropping so much in value while another is rising, albeit marginally? The simple answer comes down to supply and demand.
There are 19,328 copies of Incredible Hulk #181 in the CGC census, one graded at 9.9, 162 at 9.8 (representing the top 1.1%), and 405 at 9.6, bringing the highest grade total to 3.7% of the overall census. Conversely, there are 3,903 graded copies of House of Secrets #92 in the CGC census, none graded higher than 9.8, three at the 9.8 grade (representing the top 0.1%), and 32 at 9.6, bringing its highest grade total to just 1.1% of the overall census. The census count for Giant-Size X-Men #1 is as follows: 9.9 – 1, 9.8 – 270 (top 2%), and 9.6 – 481 (top 5.6%). There is a plentiful supply of graded copies of Incredible Hulk #181 and Giant-Size X-Men #1, even in the high grades. In fact, it could be argued that there are too many based on the demand. As fewer collectors want – or can afford – copies, the price has correspondingly shrunk, e.g. supply exceeds demand and leads to lower prices.
Regarding House of Secrets #92, based on the current data, demand is keeping pace with the available supply, thus the very slight increase in value. It’s not as if demand has exploded for Swamp Thing’s first appearance; we would then see a stronger upward trend line. However, demand is healthy enough that the current number of graded copies is just slightly behind the pace of demand. The telling point for sales of all three issues will be: 1. Will future sales of 9.8 and 9.6 graded copies of House of Secrets #92 be higher or lower than the current index averages of $60,600 and $27,050 respectively; 2. Will the values of Incredible Hulk #181 and Giant-Size X-Men #1 drop into affordability territory for more collectors, thus increasing demand?
The Next Domino to Fall?
As the back issue comic book market continues to fluctuate as it has over the past few years, other issues may fall or rise in our Bronze Age CPI. One to watch carefully in the coming weeks and months is Werewolf by Night #32, the first appearance of Moon Knight. Its price has stabilized somewhat over the past couple months, as can be seen in the three-month trend lines above, while Giant-Size X-Men #1 continues to drop. At this point, the two are only separated in the index by 0.49 points. A lower census count (6,222) and stabilizing demand mean Werewolf by Night #32 may have reached post-boom bottom and could overtake Giant-Size X-Men #1 for the third spot in our Bronze Age CPI.
