Has Amazing Spider-Man #361 Overcorrected?

What do you think? Has Amazing Spider-Man #361 overcorrected? Is this a good time to purchase a copy? Please let us know your thoughts in the comments section below!

Hope you "print" this as you did invite comments :)

Had the boom not occurred 361 likely would have leveled. During the boom copious amounts ofcollectors/sellers/flipper sent their copies off to CGC. As a result the Census population of 361 is always growing. The numbers in high grades (9.6 and 9.8) increase by 20-40 copies every census update. Also important to remember is this book came out in heart of the 1990's glut. It was hyped from day one and went into Mylars from the moment it was purchased. Seemingly an endless supply.

Huge high population census books require huge constant demand just to maintain a price level. So very many people got burned by this book. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me applies. I predict the book will never have even 1/4 of it's peek boom demand ever again and that the high grade supply will continue to grow and grow.

IMHO as law of of supply and demand dictates the book is still over-valued and the CGC 9.8 floor for 361 is probably $200-$250.

Prior to the comics bubble of 2021, I had observed that most Marvel comics from 1992 and earlier that had no MCU tie-in were appreciating somewhere around 7% a year. If we applied that figure instead of 20% to the 2009 price, current values would be around $150. So that's the absolute floor. Given how important the symbiote story has become (Carnage may be dead in the Sony Venomverse but is part of a bigger story), I could be persuaded that $300 is a reasonable floor. But not much higher than that. To me, current prices seem about right and are not yet in overcorrection territory. For overcorrection, you might to look toward All New Marvel NOW! Point One or Savage She Hulk 1 or Young Avengers 1 or Amazing Spiderman 546 or even Ultimate Fallout 4 (or many others..!)

The MCU is slowing down. The books that had little to no value before the MCU will have marginally higher value once the MCU has finished. Once the speculators leave, the speculation will be done. The MCU has not created a glut of collectors, nor has the current crop of comic writers/artists. Collectors will determine the long-term value, and collectors did not value the 90s, nor will they in the future, there were just too many produced. Modern print runs are not indicative of the number of collectors or readers. Once the MCU dies, which it will, the future of the hobby is will be dubious at best as there are very few young collectors to take up the torch.

• Agree on the facts, but disagree on the interpretation. So, I agree that the speculators are leaving the market due to the 1-2 punch of the collapse of crypto and disappointment with MCU Phase 4. I also agree that collectors will determine future values--there's plenty of evidence to back that up. And I definitely agree that the lack of younger readers could be a problem. But I don't think these facts necessarily add up to a decline in the hobby.
  
  Regarding MCU speculation, I think the story of Iron Man 55 is instructive. It had a sharp drop in values after the release of Avengers Endgame. But then values crept back upwards because collectors snapped up copies. Iron Man 55 is a really cool comic with major historical significance to collectors, so there was bound to be some recovery in the market.
  
  As for the lack of youth collectors, well, Ferraris are expensive and (believe or not) collectible. Their high resale values are attained despite a lack of childhood Ferrari buying; there's no Ferrari-of-my-youth nostalgia underpinning sales. Instead, the collectors come to the Ferraris late in life, when they have acquired real wealth, and are looking for something interesting to spend their money on. My opinion--and it is only an opinion--is that the future of the hobby may be something like this, with a few collectors who spend really big bucks, driving modest to moderate price growth over time.
  
  I think technological changes could also drive the market higher. For myself, I know the increased transparency and security (relative to mail order) resulting from the rise of eBay and CGC have led me to purchase more than I otherwise would. With eBay locker on the horizon (which could mitigate shipping and labor costs associated with sales), I could see myself buying to sell (right now, I collect only). Securitization of comics (i.e. making fractional purchases of key issues possible on a "share" basis) could also expand the market and is something I would consider buying into.
  
  Obviously, as Yogi Berra said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.". But I think there's a pretty reasonable chance that the comic collecting hobby emerges from this bubble surprisingly unscathed.

  • Comparing Iron Man 55 /Thanos to Spidey 361 / Carnage -
    
    Census pops with autographed copies included:
    
    Iron Man #55 : 85 in 9.8, 168 in 9.6, 290 in 9.4
    
    Spider-Man #361: 4 in 9.9, 6346! in 9.8, 9748! in 9.6, 5162! in 9.4
    
    The difference in the populations is staggering.
    
    Nearly 10 years of films hinted at or built up to Thanos. Thanos pretty much now has the "grandmother factor" which is, chances are most grandmothers in the USA have heard the name and possibly even know more. Carnage has none of that with a single possible one-and-done live action appearance in a rather lame film.
    
    Iron Man 55 in high grade will lose only small amounts of ground during these bad times and then slowly build on that when things get better. Amazing 361 is sinking faster than an anchor and is weighed down buy a glut era high grade supply that will prevent anything more than small dead-cat bounces for easily the next 1-2 decades
    
    Bottom line Amazing Spider-Man 361, especially the direct sale, has it's day every 30 years when all comics are booming and then low or very low interest when a bubble does not exist!
    
    P.S. Above paragraph can also be applied to X-Men 1991, X-Force 1991, Spawn 1992. As well as any glut years comics with CGC census populations of 4000-15000 in High Grade. Only glutton for punishment invests in glut year comics :)

    • Fair enough. I was addressing Algonwolf's comments about the hobby in general, which I think will be fine. But ASM 361--that might be a different story. I don't know how many ASM run collectors there are, but I could believe 10k+ (I am one of them). That might give this issue some ballast to hold value.

      • Based on current sales now under $300 for Direct Sale and Newsstands barely reaching $500 the hurt will continue and increase. Predicting under $200 in next 12 months on Direct Sale and $350 or less on Newsstand. Census pops keeps increasing in 9.8 and 9.6 while demand keeps shrinking. Those left in the hobby and want the book have their copies (yes plural!). For those still lucky enough to be around and young enough to care about 361 in 30-35 years may at that time see eventually reach half it's 2021 pandemic highs or maybe not :)

Hey Don, great article. I am also justnow reading through your profile and I actually go to Fat Jacks all the time!!! Are you still in the Philly area?