2020 has been a crazy year and the comic book industry has seen its fair share of unusual events. I have noticed three comic book trends that are impacting the market place in both positive and negative ways that investors and speculators should understand to maximize profits.
No Movies means an Onslaught of Misinformation
OBSERVATION
The lack of movies has left many investors and speculators without their investment GPS. We have seen X-Men #53 explode recently in sales and price because a site theorized how Onslaught would be a great villain in a theoretical future Avengers film. No news nor a release date, and yet people started to buy this book because they believed the movie was a go. This is because people are so starved for news they will buy into hype and rumors.
The casting agent I work with told me the major motion picture I was up for is on hold indefinitely and that we should wait and see what is up. Definitive movie news may be few and far between. The reason I believe this is because of Batman Begins director Christoper Nolan's 2020 release of Tenet. Tenet was the first movie that was supposed to make profits for the studio that was released post-pandemic. Accountants are re-working projections and attorneys are re-drafting contracts to factor in these new pandemic variables. If you are waiting for movie news to make your investments there will be few reliable sources to dictate your choices.
ADVICE
Look at books neglected by the markets that have value. Flash Keys such as the 1st Appearance of the Trickster, Captain Cold, or Heat Wave have long been ignored in the market and might be good books to "speculate" if you are thinking to buy low - sell high. You might also look at other key books that might not be sexy but that are safe instead of investing in rumors.
Shuttered Comic Book Stores but Higher Prices
OBSERVATION
I recently was made aware that a few local comic book shops I knew where either shutting their doors or re-imagining their business model. The stores that closed may have been just hanging on and with the pandemic, the final blow was dealt. One owner I talked with that is recreating his business said that sale prices for the older books are surprisingly up. Hobbyists are spending more on quality books than before but new merchandise is not selling. DC Comics distribution choice and the pandemic cut into the discounts that were being offered. As a result, fewer new books were being purchased. Consumers still wanted to buy books and they put their money into older books.
People who still have jobs are not going out to eat as often; watching movies in theaters; or taking big vacations. With more money to spend prices are increasing on the older books. At a new formatted auction with no guests allowed to attend, the prices being paid by regular attendees in this online auction were more than what people were getting for these books on eBay!
ADVICE
People are also getting wiser in their choices. Captain America #217 that I had as being undervalued because of a key Marvel Bronze Age first appearance was bid up to five times the past going price. I believed in that book so much I was the winner but people are taking notice of GoCollect data and blogs. The savvy hobbyist is looking for his new edge without the movie's influence. As a result older books are starting to see action.
Secret Hint... If you see Marvel Team-Up #141 you might want to buy it. Why? The First Appearance of the Black Suit might put you in the Black! It has been mentioned here before by several bloggers, but with ASM #252 and #300 getting pricey people seem to be betting on this book to see some gains.
All Time Low Sales Numbers?
OBSERVATION
I have said this before but after 2010 I rarely give investment advice on particular books because I am not in that market a lot. That does not mean I do not study the sales numbers. In my talks with investors and my own observations, I am seeing that new comic print numbers are at all-time lows. The pandemic was one reason. Another was the decline in LCS to sell these products. Why print large runs when there fewer buyers.
To satisfy the market that is buying books, DC and Marvel have seemed to focus on Variants and first appearances. Characters are being introduced every week and the hard part is picking the winners. I am scared of taking these kinds of risks with such characters as Punchline and Black Winter. If they do become comic book icons the low print run may make owning a copy a rewarding one.
ADVICE
Do your research and pick the best in the first appearances. Remember for every Venom there is a Mace. Naomi was once red hot in markets but now she has turned cold. Even with low print runs you are taking a risk betting on these characters to be relevant in the future.
In Conclusion... The market is alive in more ways than one
The comic book market place is an ever-evolving collector's nightmare. Right when you think you have it figured out it changes and turns into something different. Use your tools and study the terrain to best prepare you for where you need to be at that moment to get you where you want to be in the future.
