When you view the Wolverine CPI using the five-year view, and you observe the steep declines in value for a major key issue -- Incredible Hulk #181 which is a "grail" for many -- you have to wonder how one of the most important first appearances of all-time has been steadily losing value for two straight years? Even after Deadpool & Wolverine (in which Wolverine wears his famed costume from Hulk #181 for the first time on screen) became the highest grossing R-rated film of all-time (currently over $1.3B)?

If Wolverine has never been more popular, then it seems logical to think that demand for his most important key issue would also increase? But when you analyze the data, it'd be easy to think that demand for Hulk #181 may actually be decreasing over the past two years. Is the steady drop in value for Hulk #181 actually a reflection of Wolverine becoming less popular among the general public?

If demand hasn't decreased, then what is causing values to fall? In addition to pandemic stimulus funds disappearing about two years ago, the most likely cause is an ever-increasing supply of graded copies of Hulk #181.

The supply of graded copies of Hulk #181 has increased by roughly 50% over the past five years.

There is ample evidence of a surge in supply of graded copies of Hulk #181 in recent years. On the eve of the pandemic, in December 2019, there were a total of 9,998 universal blue labels of Hulk #181 on the CGC Census. At that time, the most common universal grade was an 8.0 (928 copies). An 8.0 sold in the $3,400 to $3,800 range back in late 2019.

Less than five years later, there are now a whopping 14,614 universal blue labels on the CGC Census or roughly a 50% increase in supply of Hulk #181s. There are now 1,232 8.0s on the Census and the FMV today of an 8.0 is $4,700 according to GoCollect.

During that same period of time, there was also a very large increase in the number of qualified green label Hulk #181 on the CGC Census. Specifically, in late 2019, there were 738 green labels on the CGC Census; today, there are 1,287 green labels or a 57% increase.

During the past 90 days, collectors submitted 300 raw copies of Hulk #181 to CGC for grading.

And collectors / investors continue to submit copies of Hulk #181 to CGC in large numbers. For example, during the past 30 days, Hulk #181 was the 19th most submitted book to CGC (and 14th if you exclude the short-term surge in Rippaverse submissions). During the past 90 days, collectors submitted 300 raw copies to CGC for grading. Although there are a finite number of raw copies in the wild, it doesn't seem like supply is slowing down anytime soon.

Key takeaways

What are the key takeaways? Even though the supply of graded copies of Hulk #181s is increasing at a rapid rate, the value of these graded copies over the long-term (i.e., five years or longer) continue to rise in spite of the bear market of the past two years. While we haven't seen bottom yet, I think it can be argued that demand for Hulk #181 must actually be increasing even though there are many more graded copies available on the market.